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Paper Information

Journal:   RAHBORD   SUMMER 2011 , Volume 20 , Number 59; Page(s) 77 To 105.
 
Paper: 

THE CRITERIA OF METHODOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF FUTURE STUDIES TECHNIQUES

 
 
Author(s):  HAJIANI EBRAHIM*
 
* 
 
Abstract: 
Given the lack of related literature and the neglect of basic subjects, this article tries to expand methodological subjects in the field of future studies. The main problem addressed in this article is the study of the criteria of evaluating the findings of future studies and prevalent measures of evaluation and distinction of different techniques in future studies to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each of them. To do this, the author, first, studies the position of future studies compared to other methods of research, and the prevalent techniques used in future studies. Then, he examines the expectations of the clients of the products of future studies which include senior state decision-makers, entrepreneurs, and private sector managers and describes the most important methodological criteria to evaluate futurist methods including different kinds of futures, priority setting, determination of driving forces, causation mechanism, introduction of actors, theoretical framework and scientific laws, validation of findings, and method dynamics. Finally, each method is compared to criteria along a two dimensional matrix. The author concludes that each method has its own relative merit and in technique selection, its merits and expectations which to be met should be considered. At the end, the author suggests that researchers use a mix of futurist methods in implementing the projects of futurology.
 
Keyword(s): FUTURE STUDIES, FUTURISM, FUTURIST TECHNIQUES, FUTUROLOGY, METHODOLOGY
 
References: 
 
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